Impact of US Stock Market Highs on Vietnam's Economy

Key pointsThe Nasdaq index has reached a record high in the US stock market, and the decline in US Treasury yields is increasing expectations for capital inflows into emerging markets. This is expected to have a positive impact on Vietnam's economy, particularly regarding the movements of foreign investors. A sharp drop in oil prices may also contribute to inflation control.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, the decrease in US interest rates may lead to reduced financing costs, potentially affecting investments in supply chain expansion. The financial and real estate sectors are particularly sensitive to trends in the US market, necessitating caution.

Key pointsBy mid-September 2026, Vietnam recorded a trade deficit of $23.5 billion, a significant shift from the trade surplus of the previous year. The main imports are machinery and parts for production, and experts indicate that this increase in trade deficit puts pressure on exchange rates, interest rates, and the quality of growth. Notably, FDI companies maintain a surplus of about $8.7 billion, while domestic companies face a deficit of $32.2 billion, revealing a change in the structure of the trade balance.
Business impactThe expansion of the trade deficit is likely to affect exchange rates and interest rates, with an increased risk of rising funding costs as the year-end approaches. Japanese companies need to reassess their funding plans and exchange rate risk management.

Key pointsOn September 21, 2024, international gold prices fell, influenced by expectations of prolonged high interest rates from the U.S. Federal Reserve. This has affected the Vietnamese dong exchange rate and domestic gold prices, drawing attention to investor behavior. Notably, SPDR Gold Trust's selling of gold indicates changes in the gold market. Fluctuations in gold prices also impact the daily lives of Vietnamese people, as gold ownership remains strong in marriage and real estate transactions. The decline in gold prices may affect gold-related stocks such as SJC and PNJ.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, stability in the dong exchange rate is a prerequisite for business planning. Fluctuations in gold prices and U.S. interest rates affect exchange rates, necessitating a review of procurement costs for manufacturing and apparel-related companies. Investment decisions must consider exchange rate risks.

Key pointsDeputy Prime Minister Ho Quoc Dung stated that logistics is a crucial part of the national economic infrastructure and influences overall economic competitiveness. The reduction of logistics costs may affect future investment decisions, and the government has clarified its intention to make logistics a pillar of national strategy. Vietnam's logistics costs are higher compared to other emerging countries, which is seen as a factor undermining the competitiveness of export companies. In the future, stocks related to ports and industrial zones are expected to attract attention.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, improvements in logistics infrastructure will directly enhance supply chain efficiency. Companies with manufacturing bases in Vietnam will need to reassess their cost structures due to advancements in logistics reform, making it important to monitor related information.

Key pointsAn electronics company known for its famous slogan 'Wherever there is electricity, there is electric light' has seen its net profit decrease by approximately 60% after audits in 2025 due to recent management changes. This decline is particularly influenced by a subsidiary's unrecognized tax provisions for investments, leading to additional tax expenses. The company's stock will be under management starting April 2026, having fallen to one-fifth of its value over the past decade.
Business impactThis case highlights the importance of investment decisions and transparency in financial reporting, indicating that Japanese companies need to reassess investment risks in the Vietnamese market and implement appropriate risk management strategies.

Key pointsUS Trade Representative Jamison Greer stated that negotiations for a trade agreement with Vietnam have made significant progress and are very close to a final outcome. On September 21, he met with President To Lam in New York, expressing intentions to strengthen economic, trade, and investment relations between the two countries. If the agreement is concluded, it is expected to expand cooperation opportunities between the two nations.
Business impactThis agreement could present new business opportunities for Japanese companies, particularly in the trade sector, which will need to pay attention to future developments.