Threat of US Treasury Yields Exceeding 4.8% and Its Impact on Vietnam's Economy

Key pointsA cafe in Ho Chi Minh City has opened as a 'Signing Store' employing approximately 50% hearing-impaired staff. Customers can place orders using tablets and check their order status on digital screens. This model originated from a suggestion by staff in Malaysia and is now being implemented in many countries. Starbucks aims to create a workplace environment for the hearing-impaired.
Business impactThis initiative contributes to promoting employment for the hearing-impaired and strengthens corporate social responsibility. Japanese companies also need to reassess their hiring strategies to emphasize diversity.

Key pointsVietnamese and Russian airlines are increasing flight frequencies, promoting the influx of tourists. Notably, flights between Hanoi and Moscow will increase to four times a week, and Vietjet plans to launch three new routes. This is expected to raise the number of tourists from Russia and expand export opportunities for Vietnamese agricultural and seafood products. By early 2026, the number of visitors from Russia is projected to increase by 274%, reaching 863,500.
Business impactThe increase in flights presents new business opportunities for Japanese companies. In particular, businesses considering the export of agricultural and seafood products will need to leverage rapid logistics to strengthen access to the Russian market.

Key pointsIf the US 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 4.8%, there may be pressure for capital outflows from Vietnam's economy and stock market. The Vietnamese economy is particularly sensitive to foreign investment trends, raising concerns about the spillover effects on the stock market. With the FTSE upgrade pending, there is a tug-of-war over the scenario of medium-term investment inflows.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, the trends in US interest rates are crucial as they affect costs and financing, necessitating particular attention. Fluctuations in exchange rates and interest rates could have direct impacts.

Key pointsIn the first eight months of 2026, Vietnam welcomed over 1 million tourists from Russia, marking a 165.7% increase. Russia is also considering visa exemptions for Vietnamese tourists, and the expansion of flight routes between the two countries is underway, which is expected to further boost the tourism industry. The number of Russian tourists is projected to reach 1.5 million by 2026, up from the pre-COVID annual figure of 700,000 to 800,000. Cultural exchanges are also advancing, with 2026 designated as the year of scientific and educational cooperation, featuring numerous events in both countries.
Business impactJapanese companies need to capitalize on the growth of the tourism sector by seizing travel-related business opportunities. In particular, airlines and travel agencies should strengthen their approach to the Russian market and diversify their tourism packages.