Vietnam Stock Market: September Growth Scenario and FTSE Upgrade Impact

Key pointsSecurities company SHS analyzed that the inflow of foreign investment, the state-owned enterprise stock divestment plan, and the corporate performance outlook for Q3 2026 are three factors that will boost the Vietnamese stock market in September. In particular, continued net buying by foreign investors due to the FTSE upgrade is expected to significantly influence market trends.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, the upgrade of the capital market may affect the fundraising environment and the credit assessment of partner companies. Especially, companies involved in the supply chain need to pay attention to the strengthening of local companies' financial foundations.

Key pointsHo Chi Minh City has signed a cooperation agreement with eight provinces and cities in the northern and north-central regions for economic and social development from 2026 to 2030. The agreement aims to concentrate resources on economy, tourism, agriculture, science and technology, and commerce to enhance regional competitiveness. Ho Chi Minh City aims to maintain its growth and contribute to regional development.
Business impactThis agreement signifies strengthened inter-regional cooperation for Japanese companies, with expectations for expanded business opportunities. Special attention is needed to seize cooperation opportunities, particularly in tourism and agriculture-related sectors.

Key pointsAsia Commercial Bank (ACB) and the University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City (UEH) have signed an agreement to launch the ACB - Tran Mon Hung Scholarship Program. This program is jointly promoted by ACB and the family of Tran Mon Hung, aiming to foster youth development through educational support. An initial fund of 30 billion VND (approximately 1.5 million USD) has been provided, allowing students to participate in internships and mentorship programs at ACB. Additionally, ACB and UEH plan to conduct joint research on fintech and sustainable economic development.
Business impactThis program contributes to ACB's talent development strategy and is a crucial step in securing excellent candidates for future recruitment activities. Japanese companies should also seek opportunities to cultivate talented individuals through partnerships with such educational institutions.

Key pointsOn September 8, 2026, the seminar 'SIGEP vươn ra thế giới – Hành trình tại Việt Nam' held in Ho Chi Minh City offered F&B industry companies and experts the opportunity to learn about international trends and new technologies, as well as to expand connections with overseas partners. Information was shared regarding product exports from Italy and market trends, along with an introduction to SIGEP World, which will be held in Italy in 2027.
Business impactThis seminar presents an opportunity for Japanese companies to strengthen access to international markets. It is essential to consider strategies that leverage the quality and safety of Italian products to enhance competitiveness.

Key pointsUOB Bank forecasts that the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) will maintain its policy interest rates until the end of 2026. This prediction examines the potential effects on the Vietnamese economy and the exchange rate of the dong. A stable interest rate may influence foreign investment and trade in Vietnam, particularly affecting the competitiveness of Vietnamese companies amid expectations of stable exchange rates.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, the FRB's interest rate policy directly impacts funding costs and exchange rate risks. Companies engaged in import and export activities need to closely monitor exchange rate trends and implement risk hedging strategies.

Key pointsSaigon Commercial Bank (SCB) announced that it will auction two commercial properties, each measuring 1,680 square meters, located in Sentosa City, Da Nang, on September 17, 2026. The starting bid is set at 2.51 trillion VND. These properties have usage rights until 2068, and SCB aims to dispose of these assets as part of its efforts to recover non-performing loans. Currently, SCB is engaged in debt recovery amounting to 89.7 trillion VND, achieving a total of 36 trillion VND in receivables.
Business impactJapanese companies need to closely monitor the progress of SCB's asset disposal. In particular, legal procedures related to the auction and trends in the real estate market may impact future investment strategies.

Key pointsOn September 10, 2026, Deputy Minister Cao Anh Tuan visited to celebrate the 81st anniversary of Vietnam's tax industry. He praised efforts to improve tax management, simplify procedures, and upgrade IT systems. The tax authorities are introducing new management methods, including live streaming to assist taxpayers.
Business impactReforms in the tax industry will directly impact tax compliance for Japanese companies. In particular, improvements in IT systems may enhance the efficiency of tax procedures and reduce the burden on businesses.

Key pointsThe US Treasury's increasing intervention in the yen exchange rate and US bond market poses risks of dong depreciation and interest rate fluctuations affecting the Vietnamese economy. Given Vietnam's high export dependency, the intervention may influence investment decisions due to the strong impact of US monetary policy. Particularly, changes in US bond yields are a significant factor for capital flows to emerging markets.
Business impactJapanese companies need to prioritize foreign exchange risk management as fluctuations in the yen-dollar exchange rate directly affect supply chain costs. Companies exporting in dollars must enhance their management of foreign exchange gains and losses. Continuous monitoring of US monetary policy trends will be essential.

Key pointsThe Vietnam Electricity Corporation (EVN) recorded a post-tax profit of 8.63 trillion dong in the first half of 2026, a 26% increase compared to the same period last year. This profit averages about 48 billion dong per day. EVN's achievement in eliminating a cumulative loss of 45 trillion dong in a short period is noteworthy.
Business impactJapanese companies can expect improved stability in electricity supply due to EVN's performance enhancement. In particular, a review of energy costs is necessary.